Politics and Central Banks in the Air

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The much-anticipated testimony by former FBI Director James Comey, presented insight with his discussions with President Trump, although nothing that spooked the markets in any extreme direction.

Overseas, England’s Prime Minster Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its majority in parliament. The sterling fell against the dollar to $1.27, about 1.6% lower over the past week as the market perceived the Conservative Party’s loss in parliament as weakening May’s position in Brexit negotiations to be held this week.

Oil fell over the week, down about 4% to nearly $46. The move was partly related to unexpected data indicating increasing U.S. stockpiles. Treasury yields were slightly higher across the curve with the 10-Year Treasury closing at 2.205% on Friday. Major tech stocks, including Microsoft, Facebook and Google took a hit on Friday, on the back of a Goldman Sachs report on the stocks’ valuations and low volatility.

Looking ahead, central banks at home and abroad will hold the spotlight. The U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday with the market largely expecting a rate hike of 25 basis points. Some market practitioners are expecting the Fed to reveal details on how it plans to reduce its balance sheet as it continues to normalize policy. 

The Fed will host a press conference post meeting this week where Chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak. Other Fed officials speaking this week include William Dudley (Tuesday) and Robert Kaplan (Friday). The Fed’s “dot plots” will be released on Wednesday.

Across the pond, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan are also scheduled to meet this week.

In breaking news this morning, General Electric’s Jeff Immelt will step down as CEO after 16 years at the helm.